Sector reports›Aerospace & Defence
Ground segment
satellite operations, space data and services
Edition 6 · figures read up to 6 Oct 2026 · 1 listed company, 2 transactions
Listed companies (1)
| Value (m) | Share price | 2026E | 2027E | Operating | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Ccy | Enterprise value | Equity value | Price | % of 52-wk high | Change, 12 months | Div. yield | EV / Sales | EV / EBITDA | EV / Sales | EV / EBITDA | P / E | Net debt / LTM EBITDA | Sales growth 26–27E | EBITDA margin 2027E |
| HawkEye 360, Inc. | USD | 956 | 1,440 | 14.73 | 41% | – | – | 4.4x | 27.9x | 3.5x | 16.7x | 92.1x | n.m. | 24.9% | 21.1% |
| Median | 41% | – | – | 4.4x | 27.9x | 3.5x | 16.7x | 92.1x | – | 24.9% | 21.1% | ||||
Money in millions of each company’s own currency. e Argonaut’s own estimate · g the company’s guidance · ~ one fiscal year standing for the calendar year · † after capitalised development cost · n.m. not meaningful. No mark: the analysts’ consensus, or a year the company has reported. Appendix A says how each figure was obtained.
Transactions (2 with a multiple)
| Announced | Buyer | Target | Status | Ccy | Enterprise value (m) | Sales LTM (m) | EBITDA LTM (m) | EV / Sales LTM | EV / EBITDA LTM | EV / Sales forward | EV / EBITDA forward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2026 | MDA Space | Collecte Localisation Satellites (about 70%) | Announced | EUR | 1,008estimate | 286 | – | 3.5xcurrent year | 18.6xcurrent year, estimate | – | – |
| 29 Jun 2026 | Rocket Lab | Iridium Communications | Announced | USD | 8,000 | 872 | 495 | 9.2x | 16.2x | 8.5x-9.1xcurrent year, consensus | 16.1xcurrent year, consensus |
Appendix A - the listed companies’ figures, and how each estimate was obtained
Where the EBITDA comes from, in this order of preference: the analysts’ consensus; else the company’s guidance (g); else Argonaut’s own estimate (e). 2026E: consensus 1, guidance 0, Argonaut’s estimate 0. 2027E: consensus 1, guidance 0, Argonaut’s estimate 0.
| Company | Year end | Price of | Enterprise value is | Sales (m) | How the sales were obtained | EBITDA (m) | How the EBITDA was obtained | To know, and source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HawkEye 360, Inc.NYSE · US · USD | Dec | 1 Oct 2026 | as read | 2026E2182027E272 | consensus | 2026E34.22027E57.3 | consensus | listed 7 May 2026: the 52-week range runs from listingSource: StockAnalysis.com - HawkEye 360, Inc. overview, statistics and forecast pages, read 2 October 2026; sec.gov (FY2025 revenue 98,743 + related-party revenue 18,917 thousand; FY2024 revenue 49,835 + related-party revenue 17,724 thousand); sec.gov (adjusted EBITDA $24.8m FY2025; single segment); MarketScreener - HawkEye 360, Inc. finances page, read 6 October 2026 |
Appendix B - the transactions in detail
| Announced | Transaction | Value, multiples and source | Editor’s note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2026 | MDA Space / Collecte Localisation Satellites (about 70%)Earth-observation analytics and satellite IoT services, about 1,200 staff; EUR 567m for about 70% and about EUR 198m of debt retired, no enterprise value stated by MDASeller: Shareholders of the target's parent; CNES keeps about 30%Announced | Enterprise value EUR 1,008m: Argonaut's estimate.The twelve months: current year to 2026-12-31, ending after the announcement - the target's expected 2026 revenue as stated by MDA - the year of the announcement; EUR 223m in 2025; EBITDA at 19%, the midpoint of the 18-20% adjusted EBITDA margin MDA gives for the target - an estimate, EUR 51.5m to 57.2m across that range; the enterprise value is an estimate too, which MDA does not state: EUR 567m for about 70% is EUR 810m for the whole, and EUR 1,008m with the EUR 198m of debt MDA would repay, the target's cash not being knownSource: MDA Space press release, 8 July 2026 - mda-en.investorroom.com,-a-Global-Leader-in-AI-Driven-Earth-Observation-Data-Analytics | A firm offer under the French process: EUR 567m in cash for about 70%, CNES keeping about 30%, and about EUR 198m of the target's debt to be retired. MDA states no enterprise value and no multiple, only that the adjusted EBITDA margin is in line with its own outlook of 18-20%. Scaled to the whole and with that debt, the price is about EUR 1.0bn: a current year multiple of 3.5x revenue and of about 18.6x EBITDA, both estimates. Closing is expected at the end of 2026 or early in 2027. |
| 29 Jun 2026 | Rocket Lab / Iridium CommunicationsListed satellite-communications network operator; USD 54.00 per share, half in cash and half in Rocket Lab sharesSeller: Public shareholdersAnnounced | Enterprise value USD 8,000m: the buyer's figure.The twelve months: LTM to 2025-12-31 - Iridium's fiscal 2025 revenue and operational EBITDA as in Rocket Lab's release - the last full year, not the twelve months to June 2026The forward figures (current year): analysts' consensus for 2026 - the year of the announcement, made in June. EBITDA of USD 495.8m as MarketScreener printed it on 7 October 2026; Iridium's own outlook for 2026, repeated on 23 April, is operational EBITDA of USD 480m to 490m. Revenue between USD 883m and USD 938.6m: two readings of the consensus on 7 October 2026, on VCP Scanner and on MarketScreener, that differ by 6% - shown as a range, their midpoint, USD 910.8m, standing where one figure is neededSource: Rocket Lab press release and investor update, 29 June 2026 - investors.rocketlabcorp.com; MarketScreener's consensus for Iridium, read 7 October 2026 - marketscreener.com; Iridium's first-quarter 2026 results, 23 April 2026, for its outlook - investor.iridium.com; VCP Scanner's consensus for Iridium, read 7 October 2026 - vcpscanner.com | Of the USD 54.00 a share, USD 27.00 is in cash and the rest in Rocket Lab shares, with a collar. Neither party states a multiple; the one computed here is an LTM multiple, on Iridium's 2025 operational EBITDA, the last full year, a margin of 57%. On the analysts' consensus for 2026, EBITDA of about USD 496m, it is a current year multiple of 16.1x; Iridium's own outlook for the year is USD 480m to 490m. Two readings of the consensus for 2026 revenue differ, USD 883m and USD 939m: a current year multiple of 8.5x to 9.1x. Closing is expected in mid-2027. |
How to read it
- Money is in millions of each company’s or transaction’s own currency, named in its line; nothing is converted. The multiples are computed here from the figures the site keeps, not copied from a data site; the one that is quoted from a buyer is marked.
- Listed companies. The enterprise value is the one read on the day of the price, or the market value plus net debt, or, for a company under offer, the one before the offer: Appendix A says which. The price against its 52-week high, its change over twelve months and the dividend yield are as a data site prints them. Net debt / LTM EBITDA is on the EBITDA of the last twelve months as a data site prints them, else of the last reported year; net cash is in brackets, and beyond 15x either way, or on an EBITDA of zero or less, it is n.m.
- 2026E and 2027E. The calendar year of the edition’s last update and the next: an edition updated in 2027 shows 2027E and 2028E. Each figure is the best estimate the report can make: the analysts’ consensus, or what the company has reported for a year already ended; else the company’s guidance, marked g; else Argonaut’s own estimate, marked e - sales carried forward at the growth the company’s own figures show, by 25% a year at most, and EBITDA as those sales at the margin of the nearest year the library holds, a forecast year’s, else the last reported year’s, else the last twelve months’. Where a fiscal year does not end in December, the two fiscal years are weighted by the months each has in the calendar year; where only one of them is held and it covers at least half the year, it stands in, marked ~. Appendix A gives every figure with how it was obtained.
- EBITDA. In this order: the analysts’ consensus; else the company’s guidance, marked g; else Argonaut’s own estimate, marked e. Appendix A says which of the three each figure is, and where it was read. Where the library holds the development cost a company capitalised in its last reported year, read in its annual report, it is taken off both years’ EBITDA, as a bank’s comps do for companies reporting under IFRS, and the multiple and the margin are marked †; where it holds none, nothing is taken off. P / E is the share price over the consensus earnings per share of the year, weighted by months as the other figures are and marked ~ where one fiscal year stands in. Sales growth is the second year’s sales over the first’s; where a fiscal year stands for the first, it is that fiscal year’s growth to the next, marked ~, and none is shown where the second year is only the first held. The EBITDA margin is the second year’s.
- Transactions. The value is the buyer’s own figure where it gives one. The columns are the bases a valuation counts on, LTM and forward; the word under a multiple says what its year really is when it is not that. LTM: the twelve months, or the last full year, before the announcement. Current year: the year running at the announcement, which the buyer only expected. Next year: the year after; a later year, one further out. NTM: the twelve months after the announcement, from a forecast of the time or, where it is marked projected, estimated from the target’s reported growth with the LTM margin held. Where the buyer states its own multiple and no figure, the multiple is quoted as stated and marked the buyer’s multiple, on the twelve months before the announcement as on the year after. No LTM figure is worked back from a multiple the buyer states. Marked estimate: the EBITDA is Argonaut’s, from the buyer’s own figures - the revenue it expects at the margin it gave, a range taken at its midpoint, or the EBITDA its multiple after synergies implies, less the synergies it counts; on the twelve months before the announcement too, where the EBITDA column then stays empty. Marked consensus: the forward figures are the analysts’ consensus for a listed target; where two readings of it differ by more than 2%, the multiple is a range, and where they differ by more than 10% none is shown. A value marked estimate is one no party states: the price of a stake scaled to the whole, plus the debt. ‡: a figure a newspaper reported, not one the buyer or the target states. A figure may come from the buyer’s release, its acquisition call or presentation, the target’s own accounts or the press that names its source: Appendix B says which. n.d.: not disclosed. Appendix B gives what each target makes, who sold it, what its figures rest on, the editor’s note and the source.
- An EBITDA multiple above 35x, or on a figure of zero or less, is shown as n.m. (not meaningful), as is a P / E above 100x or on earnings of zero or less; both are left out of the medians, which also leave out a company without the figure. A median is the middle value of a segment’s companies.
- Sources. All are public. Each transaction names its own. The notes on the transactions are the editor’s comments, not sourced figures. The valuation in a profile does not rest on this report: it stays on the next twelve months. The listed companies’ figures were read from, with the number of companies in brackets where more than one: MarketScreener; SEC filings; StockAnalysis.com. Appendix A names each company’s sources.
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