Sector reports›Aerospace & Defence

satellite operations, space data and services

Edition 6 · figures read up to 6 Oct 2026 · 1 listed company, 2 transactions

Listed companies (1)

Value (m)Share price2026E2027EOperating
CompanyCcyEnterprise valueEquity valuePrice% of 52-wk highChange, 12 monthsDiv. yieldEV / SalesEV / EBITDAEV / SalesEV / EBITDAP / ENet debt / LTM EBITDASales growth 26–27EEBITDA margin 2027E
HawkEye 360, Inc.USD9561,44014.7341%––4.4x27.9x3.5x16.7x92.1xn.m.24.9%21.1%
Median41%––4.4x27.9x3.5x16.7x92.1x–24.9%21.1%

Money in millions of each company’s own currency. e Argonaut’s own estimate · g the company’s guidance · ~ one fiscal year standing for the calendar year · † after capitalised development cost · n.m. not meaningful. No mark: the analysts’ consensus, or a year the company has reported. Appendix A says how each figure was obtained.

Transactions (2 with a multiple)

AnnouncedBuyerTargetStatusCcyEnterprise value (m)Sales LTM (m)EBITDA LTM (m)EV / Sales LTMEV / EBITDA LTMEV / Sales forwardEV / EBITDA forward
8 Jul 2026MDA SpaceCollecte Localisation Satellites (about 70%)AnnouncedEUR1,008estimate286–3.5xcurrent year18.6xcurrent year, estimate––
29 Jun 2026Rocket LabIridium CommunicationsAnnouncedUSD8,0008724959.2x16.2x8.5x-9.1xcurrent year, consensus16.1xcurrent year, consensus

Appendix A - the listed companies’ figures, and how each estimate was obtained

Where the EBITDA comes from, in this order of preference: the analysts’ consensus; else the company’s guidance (g); else Argonaut’s own estimate (e). 2026E: consensus 1, guidance 0, Argonaut’s estimate 0. 2027E: consensus 1, guidance 0, Argonaut’s estimate 0.

CompanyYear endPrice ofEnterprise value isSales (m)How the sales were obtainedEBITDA (m)How the EBITDA was obtainedTo know, and source
HawkEye 360, Inc.NYSE · US · USDDec1 Oct 2026as read2026E2182027E272consensus2026E34.22027E57.3consensuslisted 7 May 2026: the 52-week range runs from listingSource: StockAnalysis.com - HawkEye 360, Inc. overview, statistics and forecast pages, read 2 October 2026; sec.gov (FY2025 revenue 98,743 + related-party revenue 18,917 thousand; FY2024 revenue 49,835 + related-party revenue 17,724 thousand); sec.gov (adjusted EBITDA $24.8m FY2025; single segment); MarketScreener - HawkEye 360, Inc. finances page, read 6 October 2026

Appendix B - the transactions in detail

AnnouncedTransactionValue, multiples and sourceEditor’s note
8 Jul 2026MDA Space / Collecte Localisation Satellites (about 70%)Earth-observation analytics and satellite IoT services, about 1,200 staff; EUR 567m for about 70% and about EUR 198m of debt retired, no enterprise value stated by MDASeller: Shareholders of the target's parent; CNES keeps about 30%AnnouncedEnterprise value EUR 1,008m: Argonaut's estimate.The twelve months: current year to 2026-12-31, ending after the announcement - the target's expected 2026 revenue as stated by MDA - the year of the announcement; EUR 223m in 2025; EBITDA at 19%, the midpoint of the 18-20% adjusted EBITDA margin MDA gives for the target - an estimate, EUR 51.5m to 57.2m across that range; the enterprise value is an estimate too, which MDA does not state: EUR 567m for about 70% is EUR 810m for the whole, and EUR 1,008m with the EUR 198m of debt MDA would repay, the target's cash not being knownSource: MDA Space press release, 8 July 2026 - mda-en.investorroom.com,-a-Global-Leader-in-AI-Driven-Earth-Observation-Data-AnalyticsA firm offer under the French process: EUR 567m in cash for about 70%, CNES keeping about 30%, and about EUR 198m of the target's debt to be retired. MDA states no enterprise value and no multiple, only that the adjusted EBITDA margin is in line with its own outlook of 18-20%. Scaled to the whole and with that debt, the price is about EUR 1.0bn: a current year multiple of 3.5x revenue and of about 18.6x EBITDA, both estimates. Closing is expected at the end of 2026 or early in 2027.
29 Jun 2026Rocket Lab / Iridium CommunicationsListed satellite-communications network operator; USD 54.00 per share, half in cash and half in Rocket Lab sharesSeller: Public shareholdersAnnouncedEnterprise value USD 8,000m: the buyer's figure.The twelve months: LTM to 2025-12-31 - Iridium's fiscal 2025 revenue and operational EBITDA as in Rocket Lab's release - the last full year, not the twelve months to June 2026The forward figures (current year): analysts' consensus for 2026 - the year of the announcement, made in June. EBITDA of USD 495.8m as MarketScreener printed it on 7 October 2026; Iridium's own outlook for 2026, repeated on 23 April, is operational EBITDA of USD 480m to 490m. Revenue between USD 883m and USD 938.6m: two readings of the consensus on 7 October 2026, on VCP Scanner and on MarketScreener, that differ by 6% - shown as a range, their midpoint, USD 910.8m, standing where one figure is neededSource: Rocket Lab press release and investor update, 29 June 2026 - investors.rocketlabcorp.com; MarketScreener's consensus for Iridium, read 7 October 2026 - marketscreener.com; Iridium's first-quarter 2026 results, 23 April 2026, for its outlook - investor.iridium.com; VCP Scanner's consensus for Iridium, read 7 October 2026 - vcpscanner.comOf the USD 54.00 a share, USD 27.00 is in cash and the rest in Rocket Lab shares, with a collar. Neither party states a multiple; the one computed here is an LTM multiple, on Iridium's 2025 operational EBITDA, the last full year, a margin of 57%. On the analysts' consensus for 2026, EBITDA of about USD 496m, it is a current year multiple of 16.1x; Iridium's own outlook for the year is USD 480m to 490m. Two readings of the consensus for 2026 revenue differ, USD 883m and USD 939m: a current year multiple of 8.5x to 9.1x. Closing is expected in mid-2027.

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